Insights from Statistical Trends and Patterns relating to Youth Justice: 1911 - 2021

Abstract

The distinctive demographic characteristics of Māori during the 20th century have significantly influenced the impact on Māori of public policy in many fields. Although the focus of this paper is on imprisonment rates, the approach may have some relevance in health, education and housing in particular. By grouping birth cohorts to quantify the experiences of five generations of Māori over the 20^th century, it is possible to identify where shifts in legislation and institutional practices, particularly of the Police and the Judiciary, coincide with the generational shifts that reflect societal and demographic change. In this paper, insights into intergenerational change have been based on birth cohort experiences estimated from 1911.  The paper shows that young males under 20 are now less likely to enter prison than any generation over the last 100 years. Differences remain in the likelihood of apprehension and sentencing for offending between Māori and those of European ethnicity. This has persisted regardless of justice policy as it has shifted from being strongly punitive to emphasising prevention, diversion and rehabilitation. The impact on the prison population over the next twenty years will be substantial, as it will decline and be predominantly from older age groups.